Gold price forecasts 2013
For the fourth quarter of 2013 analysts surveyed by Bloomberg in
November 2012 forecasted a level of US dollars 1,925.- per ounce of
gold.
The bullion bank ScotiaMocatta forecasts a rising gold price in 2013
and would not be surprised to see a gold price above US$ 2,200.- per
troy ounce of gold.
The French Bank BNP Paribas estimated in November 2012 gold to reach
US dollars 1,675 per ounce in 2012 and US dollars 1,865 per ounce in
2013. On the other hand, Thomson Reuters GFMS expects the peak of the
gold price for end of 2012 or beginning of 2013 and a following decrease
in the price of gold from 2013 on. In November 2012, members of the London Bullion Market Association forecast
a gold price of US dollars 1,843.- by September 2013. The global bank
HSBC predicts a very similar gold price of 1,850 US dollars per ounce of
gold in 2013.
The CEO of the largest US gold mining company Newmont Mining
estimates that the price of gold in 2013 may increase to US dollars
2,550.
In November 2012, Deutsche Bank updated its forecast on the gold
price to US$ 2,000.- by next year, i.e. 2013. Credit Suisse expects a
gold price of US$ 1,840.- in 2013, while in October 2012 private bank
Coutts predicted gold prices to reach US$ 2,000.- in the coming months.
Outlook on Gold 2013 and beyond
The diversity of analyst predictions with regard to the gold price in
2013 and the following years mirrors the uncertainties in the global
markets.
An interesting fact about gold is that it often performs well in
scenarios of deflation (for instance driven by global debt reductions)
but also in scenarios with higher than usual inflation rates (which
could potentially occur as public debt level increases further).
Gold therefore tends to perform positively in times of economic
uncertainties as well as in acute crises. Unfortunately, the global
financial problems are not yet sorted out. Some credible commentators
expect several more years of uncertainty and painful deleveraging, which
could end only when we are approaching the next decade.
Thus, in the foreseeable future a moderate allocation to gold will
remain the imperative for many investors and could result in a positive
trend of the gold price 2013 and beyond. Portfolio diversification, i.e.
the allocation of funds to different asset classes and investments,
should remain an imperative for safety-orientated investors over the
coming years.
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